Watching the US housing meltdown

The US credit/housing bubble is bursting as predicted. The trouble began late last year and things are going to get worse before they get better. Inventory is way up and flippers have to compete with builders: (emphasis mine)

JTS Communities just undercut all the recently closed home buyers in the Estates at Lincoln Crossing (Sacramento area), dropping prices $100,000 to $200,000 on homes of $600,000 to $800,000. They waited for all the current deals to close before they cut prices. Very ugly. 168 homes, about 120 closed at full price, now 48 or so are setting a new standard 25% UNDER the purchase price of a few months ago. 90% of the homes were purchased by investors. Some will be underwater for years, feeding neg cash flow, some will walk away and let them foreclose. The place looks like a Twilight Zone ghost town. All these sold homes, perfect lawns, but no occupants

The Housing Bubble blog gathers news from across the country. Increasingly mainstream news outlets are catching on as well. MSN has posted a couple articles lately I liked: exotic' mortgages seen losing their allure and Face it: The housing bust is here. There's plenty to read, just Google "housing bust".

The lesson here is that the fundamentals don't lie. As the bubble was growing I found it funny listening to people explain how "this time is different" and it was safe to ignore both history and basic economics. Not just safe, but they would call you a fool if you didn't buy in. Well this real estate crash will certainly be different, it's going to be a lot worse for a lot more people.

I'm still entertained by what people say, but now it's how this isn't their own fault. Like blaming the media for hyping the bust (not that they had a problem when the same media was hyping the boom) or the lender for giving them the untenable mortgage. You can even find a few people who's paycheck is connected to the business trying to downplay the upcoming Armageddon, but these "bubble deniers" get rarer by the day as the for sale signs pile up.

I'll end this post with my favorite comment so far from the bubble blog:

People talk about a catching a falling knife— but the thing is, this real estate bubble isn't like a knife, it'’s a multi-trillion dollar spiked anvil that is gaining momentum. Anyone who bought in the last 3 years, and anyone who buys in the next 3 years is going to get their hands chopped off at their ankles.

IAU puts down Pluto

The draft resolution did not pass. The final version has gone the other way and instead of 3 objects to the old list of 9 planets, we'll be going down to 8. Pluto ,with its odd orbit, is demoted from planet to dwarf planet and will likely be joined by the candidates vying for that title of planet.

This is... nuts

Say this tongue twister, or else...

New planets

The IAU draft definition of "planet" and "plutons"

If you call Pluto a planet then there are other, larger objects in our solar system that should also be planets. So, either bring them all in or scratch Pluto from the list. Well, how about a compromise:

We'll count Ceres, Charon, and Xena (informal codename of the yet unnamed "2003 UB313") as planets, but distinguish them and Pluto from the 8 "classic planets" and as "plutons". That's the International Astronomical Union proposal anyway. The new definition of a planet would be:

A planet is a celestial body that (a) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (b) is in orbit around a star, and is neither a star nor a satellite of a planet.

But, that opens the door to another 12 objects being added later: 2003 EL61, 2005 FY9, Sedna, Orcus, Quaoar, 2002 TX300, 2002 AW197, Varuna, Ixion, Vesta, Pallas, Hygiea

I wonder is the IAU considered at all what impact this would have on my RPM version codename scheme.

My belief

To be fair I should say what I believe:

• Trying to prove or disprove the existence of God with empirical evidence is futile and misses the point of faith.
• Even if the bible had a math mistake, that doesn't disprove the existence of God anymore than finding a boat on a mountain in Ararat would prove it (Mia).
• I believe in science, but there are some things it can't explain (yet). So, while I lean towards "does not exist", I can't say for sure so I guess if I must be labeled that makes me an agnostic.
• I'm fully responsible for my own path in life. No waiting for someone/thing else to tell me what to do.

Humble Pi

Innumerate Fundamentalists and π

I don't believe the bible is true in the sense it has the answers for my life, but I don't think that means it's entirely false either. I'm sure much of it relates to real historical events. Take 1 Kings 7.23 for example where a big bowl is being described:

He made the Sea of cast metal, circular in shape, measuring ten cubits from rim to rim and five cubits high. It took a line of thirty cubits to measure around it.

Now a high school student could tell you the math doesn't work. A circle 10x across can't have a circumference of 30x. But I don't think that matters. I have to give some leeway for inaccurate measurements of the time, and maybe there's some translation issues too. The point is I think it's close enough given the context.

But then enter the bible literalist who believes the bible is exact as written and the truth. Therefore Pi must be wrong.

Very easy. You are talking about the value of Pi. That is actually 3 not 3.14....... The digits after the decimal forms a geometric series and it will converge to the value zero. So, 3.14.....=3.00=3. Nobody still calculated the precise value of Pi. In future they will and apply advenced Mathematics to prove the value of Pi=3.

I mean, where do you start with this? Maybe the best way to handle them is to ask to see the label of their shirt. That cotton-poly blend will be a little warm in the fires of hell.

Blogroll test

Hoover Dam

One of sites I feed on every day is The Housing Bubble Blog. Even better than the article are the comments. Today it was Las Vegas and one user had a nice comment on the water and power problem:

Right, LV gets a lot of power from the Colorado River. Here's how the river's usage is divided up:

California 50%
Nevada 50%
Arizona 50%

Yah, and Mexico gets what's left over.

This gigantic scientist will devour us all!

Ted Stevens defends his ignorant view of the Internet. If you still haven't you should watch Jon Stewart's hilarious analysis.

I have a letter from a big scientist who said I was absolutely right in using the word 'tubes'.